Daily Papers

We propose a federated averaging Langevin algorithm (FA-LD) for uncertainty quantification and mean predictions with distributed clients. In particular, we generalize beyond normal posterior distributions and consider a general class of models. We develop theoretical guarantees for FA-LD for strongly log-concave distributions with non-i.i.d data and study how the injected noise and the stochastic-gradient noise, the heterogeneity of data, and the varying learning rates affect the convergence. Such an analysis sheds light on the optimal choice of local updates to minimize communication costs. Important to our approach is that the communication efficiency does not deteriorate with the injected noise in the Langevin algorithms. In addition, we examine in our FA-LD algorithm both independent and correlated noise used over different clients. We observe there is a trade-off between the pairs among communication, accuracy, and data privacy. As local devices may become inactive in federated networks, we also show convergence results based on different averaging schemes where only partial device updates are available. In such a case, we discover an additional bias that does not decay to zero.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Recent advances in Text-to-3D (T23D) generative models have enabled the synthesis of diverse, high-fidelity 3D assets from textual prompts. However, existing challenges restrict the development of reliable T23D quality assessment (T23DQA). First, existing benchmarks are outdated, fragmented, and coarse-grained, making fine-grained metric training infeasible. Moreover, current objective metrics exhibit inherent design limitations, resulting in non-representative feature extraction and diminished metric robustness. To address these limitations, we introduce T23D-CompBench, a comprehensive benchmark for compositional T23D generation. We define five components with twelve sub-components for compositional prompts, which are used to generate 3,600 textured meshes from ten state-of-the-art generative models. A large-scale subjective experiment is conducted to collect 129,600 reliable human ratings across different perspectives. Based on T23D-CompBench, we further propose Rank2Score, an effective evaluator with two-stage training for T23DQA. Rank2Score enhances pairwise training via supervised contrastive regression and curriculum learning in the first stage, and subsequently refines predictions using mean opinion scores to achieve closer alignment with human judgments in the second stage. Extensive experiments and downstream applications demonstrate that Rank2Score consistently outperforms existing metrics across multiple dimensions and can additionally serve as a reward function to optimize generative models. The project is available at https://cbysjtu.github.io/Rank2Score/.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

This paper describes Tacotron 2, a neural network architecture for speech synthesis directly from text. The system is composed of a recurrent sequence-to-sequence feature prediction network that maps character embeddings to mel-scale spectrograms, followed by a modified WaveNet model acting as a vocoder to synthesize timedomain waveforms from those spectrograms. Our model achieves a mean opinion score (MOS) of 4.53 comparable to a MOS of 4.58 for professionally recorded speech. To validate our design choices, we present ablation studies of key components of our system and evaluate the impact of using mel spectrograms as the input to WaveNet instead of linguistic, duration, and F_0 features. We further demonstrate that using a compact acoustic intermediate representation enables significant simplification of the WaveNet architecture.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees, such as false positive rate control, are needed to communicate findings transparently and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models, by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized testing (SKIT) to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification tasks using vision-language models such as CLIP.

The extended kernel ridge regression (EKRR) method with odd-even effects was adopted to improve the description of the nuclear charge radius using five commonly used nuclear models. These are: (i) the isospin dependent A^{1/3} formula, (ii) relativistic continuum Hartree-Bogoliubov (RCHB) theory, (iii) Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) model HFB25, (iv) the Weizs\"acker-Skyrme (WS) model WS^ast, and (v) HFB25^ast model. In the last two models, the charge radii were calculated using a five-parameter formula with the nuclear shell corrections and deformations obtained from the WS and HFB25 models, respectively. For each model, the resultant root-mean-square deviation for the 1014 nuclei with proton number Z geq 8 can be significantly reduced to 0.009-0.013~fm after considering the modification with the EKRR method. The best among them was the RCHB model, with a root-mean-square deviation of 0.0092~fm. The extrapolation abilities of the KRR and EKRR methods for the neutron-rich region were examined and it was found that after considering the odd-even effects, the extrapolation power was improved compared with that of the original KRR method. The strong odd-even staggering of nuclear charge radii of Ca and Cu isotopes and the abrupt kinks across the neutron N=126 and 82 shell closures were also calculated and could be reproduced quite well by calculations using the EKRR method.

Regression Mean (RegMean), an approach that formulates model merging as a linear regression problem, aims to find the optimal weights for each linear layer in the merge model by minimizing the discrepancy in predictions between the merge and candidate models. RegMean provides a precise closed-form solution for the merging problem; therefore, it offers explainability and computational efficiency. However, RegMean merges each linear layer independently, overlooking how the features and information in the earlier layers propagate through the layers and influence the final prediction in the merge model. In this paper, we introduce RegMean++, a simple yet effective alternative to RegMean, that explicitly incorporates both intra- and cross-layer dependencies between merge models' layers into RegMean's objective. By accounting for these dependencies, RegMean++ better captures the behaviors of the merge model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RegMean++ consistently outperforms RegMean across diverse settings, including in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, sequential merging, large-scale tasks, and robustness under several types of distribution shifts. Furthermore, RegMean++ achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to various recent advanced model merging methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/nthehai01/RegMean-plusplus.

Audio-Visual Source Localization (AVSL) aims to locate sounding objects within video frames given the paired audio clips. Existing methods predominantly rely on self-supervised contrastive learning of audio-visual correspondence. Without any bounding-box annotations, they struggle to achieve precise localization, especially for small objects, and suffer from blurry boundaries and false positives. Moreover, the naive semi-supervised method is poor in fully leveraging the information of abundant unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning framework for AVSL, namely Dual Mean-Teacher (DMT), comprising two teacher-student structures to circumvent the confirmation bias issue. Specifically, two teachers, pre-trained on limited labeled data, are employed to filter out noisy samples via the consensus between their predictions, and then generate high-quality pseudo-labels by intersecting their confidence maps. The sufficient utilization of both labeled and unlabeled data and the proposed unbiased framework enable DMT to outperform current state-of-the-art methods by a large margin, with CIoU of 90.4% and 48.8% on Flickr-SoundNet and VGG-Sound Source, obtaining 8.9%, 9.6% and 4.6%, 6.4% improvements over self- and semi-supervised methods respectively, given only 3% positional-annotations. We also extend our framework to some existing AVSL methods and consistently boost their performance.

In order to make accurate predictions of material properties, current machine-learning approaches generally require large amounts of data, which are often not available in practice. In this work, an all-round framework is presented which relies on a feedforward neural network, the selection of physically-meaningful features and, when applicable, joint-learning. Next to being faster in terms of training time, this approach is shown to outperform current graph-network models on small datasets. In particular, the vibrational entropy at 305 K of crystals is predicted with a mean absolute test error of 0.009 meV/K/atom (four times lower than previous studies). Furthermore, joint-learning reduces the test error compared to single-target learning and enables the prediction of multiple properties at once, such as temperature functions. Finally, the selection algorithm highlights the most important features and thus helps understanding the underlying physics.

In this work, we focus on semi-supervised learning for video action detection. Video action detection requires spatiotemporal localization in addition to classification, and a limited amount of labels makes the model prone to unreliable predictions. We present Stable Mean Teacher, a simple end-to-end teacher-based framework that benefits from improved and temporally consistent pseudo labels. It relies on a novel Error Recovery (EoR) module, which learns from students' mistakes on labeled samples and transfers this knowledge to the teacher to improve pseudo labels for unlabeled samples. Moreover, existing spatiotemporal losses do not take temporal coherency into account and are prone to temporal inconsistencies. To address this, we present Difference of Pixels (DoP), a simple and novel constraint focused on temporal consistency, leading to coherent temporal detections. We evaluate our approach on four different spatiotemporal detection benchmarks: UCF101-24, JHMDB21, AVA, and YouTube-VOS. Our approach outperforms the supervised baselines for action detection by an average margin of 23.5% on UCF101-24, 16% on JHMDB21, and 3.3% on AVA. Using merely 10% and 20% of data, it provides competitive performance compared to the supervised baseline trained on 100% annotations on UCF101-24 and JHMDB21, respectively. We further evaluate its effectiveness on AVA for scaling to large-scale datasets and YouTube-VOS for video object segmentation, demonstrating its generalization capability to other tasks in the video domain. Code and models are publicly available.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Large-scale pre-trained language models have been shown to be helpful in improving the naturalness of text-to-speech (TTS) models by enabling them to produce more naturalistic prosodic patterns. However, these models are usually word-level or sup-phoneme-level and jointly trained with phonemes, making them inefficient for the downstream TTS task where only phonemes are needed. In this work, we propose a phoneme-level BERT (PL-BERT) with a pretext task of predicting the corresponding graphemes along with the regular masked phoneme predictions. Subjective evaluations show that our phoneme-level BERT encoder has significantly improved the mean opinion scores (MOS) of rated naturalness of synthesized speech compared with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) StyleTTS baseline on out-of-distribution (OOD) texts.

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

This study investigates the application of deep residual networks for predicting the dynamics of interacting three-dimensional rigid bodies. We present a framework combining a 3D physics simulator implemented in C++ with a deep learning model constructed using PyTorch. The simulator generates training data encompassing linear and angular motion, elastic collisions, fluid friction, gravitational effects, and damping. Our deep residual network, consisting of an input layer, multiple residual blocks, and an output layer, is designed to handle the complexities of 3D dynamics. We evaluate the network's performance using a datasetof 10,000 simulated scenarios, each involving 3-5 interacting rigid bodies. The model achieves a mean squared error of 0.015 for position predictions and 0.022 for orientation predictions, representing a 25% improvement over baseline methods. Our results demonstrate the network's ability to capture intricate physical interactions, with particular success in predicting elastic collisions and rotational dynamics. This work significantly contributes to physics-informed machine learning by showcasing the immense potential of deep residual networks in modeling complex 3D physical systems. We discuss our approach's limitations and propose future directions for improving generalization to more diverse object shapes and materials.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Cognitively inspired Natural Language Pro-cessing uses human-derived behavioral datalike eye-tracking data, which reflect the seman-tic representations of language in the humanbrain to augment the neural nets to solve arange of tasks spanning syntax and semanticswith the aim of teaching machines about lan-guage processing mechanisms. In this paper,we use the ZuCo 1.0 and ZuCo 2.0 dataset con-taining the eye-gaze features to explore differ-ent linguistic models to directly predict thesegaze features for each word with respect to itssentence. We tried different neural networkmodels with the words as inputs to predict thetargets. And after lots of experimentation andfeature engineering finally devised a novel ar-chitecture consisting of RoBERTa Token Clas-sifier with a dense layer on top for languagemodeling and a stand-alone model consistingof dense layers followed by a transformer layerfor the extra features we engineered. Finally,we took the mean of the outputs of both thesemodels to make the final predictions. We eval-uated the models using mean absolute error(MAE) and the R2 score for each target.

Large audio-language models (LALMs) show strong zero-shot ability on speech tasks, suggesting promise for speech emotion recognition (SER). However, SER in real-world deployments often fails under domain mismatch, where source data are unavailable and powerful LALMs are accessible only through an API. We ask: given only unlabeled target-domain audio and an API-only LALM, can a student model be adapted to outperform the LALM in the target domain? To this end, we propose MI-Fuse, a denoised label fusion framework that supplements the LALM with a source-domain trained SER classifier as an auxiliary teacher. The framework draws multiple stochastic predictions from both teachers, weights their mean distributions by mutual-information-based uncertainty, and stabilizes training with an exponential moving average teacher. Experiments across three public emotion datasets and six cross-domain transfers show consistent gains, with the student surpassing the LALM and outperforming the strongest baseline by 3.9%. This approach strengthens emotion-aware speech systems without sharing source data, enabling realistic adaptation.

The rapid advancement of AI-generated image (AGI) models has introduced significant challenges in evaluating their quality, which requires considering multiple dimensions such as perceptual quality, prompt correspondence, and authenticity. To address these challenges, we propose M3-AGIQA, a comprehensive framework for AGI quality assessment that is Multimodal, Multi-Round, and Multi-Aspect. Our approach leverages the capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) as joint text and image encoders and distills advanced captioning capabilities from online MLLMs into a local model via Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) fine-tuning. The framework includes a structured multi-round evaluation mechanism, where intermediate image descriptions are generated to provide deeper insights into the quality, correspondence, and authenticity aspects. To align predictions with human perceptual judgments, a predictor constructed by an xLSTM and a regression head is incorporated to process sequential logits and predict Mean Opinion Scores (MOSs). Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that M3-AGIQA achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively capturing nuanced aspects of AGI quality. Furthermore, cross-dataset validation confirms its strong generalizability. The code is available at https://github.com/strawhatboy/M3-AGIQA.

Radio frequency fingerprint identification (RFFI) is an emerging device authentication technique that relies on intrinsic hardware characteristics of wireless devices. We designed an RFFI scheme for Long Range (LoRa) systems based on spectrogram and convolutional neural network (CNN). Specifically, we used spectrogram to represent the fine-grained time-frequency characteristics of LoRa signals. In addition, we revealed that the instantaneous carrier frequency offset (CFO) is drifting, which will result in misclassification and significantly compromise the system stability; we demonstrated CFO compensation is an effective mitigation. Finally, we designed a hybrid classifier that can adjust CNN outputs with the estimated CFO. The mean value of CFO remains relatively stable, hence it can be used to rule out CNN predictions whose estimated CFO falls out of the range. We performed experiments in real wireless environments using 20 LoRa devices under test (DUTs) and a Universal Software Radio Peripheral (USRP) N210 receiver. By comparing with the IQ-based and FFT-based RFFI schemes, our spectrogram-based scheme can reach the best classification accuracy, i.e., 97.61% for 20 LoRa DUTs.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

The ionosphere critically influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations, yet accurate prediction of its variability remains challenging due to nonlinear couplings between solar, geomagnetic, and thermospheric drivers. Total Electron Content (TEC), a key ionospheric parameter, is derived from GNSS observations, but its reliable forecasting is limited by the sparse nature of global measurements and the limited accuracy of empirical models, especially during strong space weather conditions. In this work, we present a machine learning framework for ionospheric TEC forecasting that leverages Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) to predict sparse ionosphere data. Our approach accommodates heterogeneous input sources, including solar irradiance, geomagnetic indices, and GNSS-derived vertical TEC, and applies preprocessing and temporal alignment strategies. Experiments spanning 2010-2025 demonstrate that the model achieves robust predictions up to 24 hours ahead, with root mean square errors as low as 3.33 TECU. Results highlight that solar EUV irradiance provides the strongest predictive signals. Beyond forecasting accuracy, the framework offers interpretability through attention-based analysis, supporting both operational applications and scientific discovery. To encourage reproducibility and community-driven development, we release the full implementation as the open-source toolkit ionopy.

Accurate segmentation of thin structures is critical for microsurgical scene understanding but remains challenging due to resolution loss, low contrast, and class imbalance. We propose Microsurgery Instrument Segmentation for Robotic Assistance(MISRA), a segmentation framework that augments RGB input with luminance channels, integrates skip attention to preserve elongated features, and employs an Iterative Feedback Module(IFM) for continuity restoration across multiple passes. In addition, we introduce a dedicated microsurgical dataset with fine-grained annotations of surgical instruments including thin objects, providing a benchmark for robust evaluation Dataset available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/KIST-HARILAB/MISAW-Seg. Experiments demonstrate that MISRA achieves competitive performance, improving the mean class IoU by 5.37% over competing methods, while delivering more stable predictions at instrument contacts and overlaps. These results position MISRA as a promising step toward reliable scene parsing for computer-assisted and robotic microsurgery.

In this work, we explore two classes of density dependent relativistic mean-field models, their predictions of proton fractions at high densities and neutron star structure. We have used a metamodelling approach to these relativistic density functionals. We have generated a large ensemble of models with these classes and then applied constraints from theoretical and experimental nuclear physics and astrophysical observations. We find that both models produce similar equations of state and neutron star mass-radius sequences. But, their underlying compositions, denoted by the proton fraction in this case, are vastly different. This reinstates previous findings that information on composition gets masqueraded in beta-equilibrium. Additional observations of non-equilibrium phenomena are necessary to pin it down.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

Knowledge of mixtures' phase equilibria is crucial in nature and technical chemistry. Phase equilibria calculations of mixtures require activity coefficients. However, experimental data on activity coefficients is often limited due to high cost of experiments. For an accurate and efficient prediction of activity coefficients, machine learning approaches have been recently developed. However, current machine learning approaches still extrapolate poorly for activity coefficients of unknown molecules. In this work, we introduce the SMILES-to-Properties-Transformer (SPT), a natural language processing network to predict binary limiting activity coefficients from SMILES codes. To overcome the limitations of available experimental data, we initially train our network on a large dataset of synthetic data sampled from COSMO-RS (10 Million data points) and then fine-tune the model on experimental data (20 870 data points). This training strategy enables SPT to accurately predict limiting activity coefficients even for unknown molecules, cutting the mean prediction error in half compared to state-of-the-art models for activity coefficient predictions such as COSMO-RS, UNIFAC, and improving on recent machine learning approaches.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Photo-realistic image restoration algorithms are typically evaluated by distortion measures (e.g., PSNR, SSIM) and by perceptual quality measures (e.g., FID, NIQE), where the desire is to attain the lowest possible distortion without compromising on perceptual quality. To achieve this goal, current methods typically attempt to sample from the posterior distribution, or to optimize a weighted sum of a distortion loss (e.g., MSE) and a perceptual quality loss (e.g., GAN). Unlike previous works, this paper is concerned specifically with the optimal estimator that minimizes the MSE under a constraint of perfect perceptual index, namely where the distribution of the reconstructed images is equal to that of the ground-truth ones. A recent theoretical result shows that such an estimator can be constructed by optimally transporting the posterior mean prediction (MMSE estimate) to the distribution of the ground-truth images. Inspired by this result, we introduce Posterior-Mean Rectified Flow (PMRF), a simple yet highly effective algorithm that approximates this optimal estimator. In particular, PMRF first predicts the posterior mean, and then transports the result to a high-quality image using a rectified flow model that approximates the desired optimal transport map. We investigate the theoretical utility of PMRF and demonstrate that it consistently outperforms previous methods on a variety of image restoration tasks.

Domain Adaptation (DA) is important for deep learning-based medical image segmentation models to deal with testing images from a new target domain. As the source-domain data are usually unavailable when a trained model is deployed at a new center, Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) is appealing for data and annotation-efficient adaptation to the target domain. However, existing SFDA methods have a limited performance due to lack of sufficient supervision with source-domain images unavailable and target-domain images unlabeled. We propose a novel Uncertainty-aware Pseudo Label guided (UPL) SFDA method for medical image segmentation. Specifically, we propose Target Domain Growing (TDG) to enhance the diversity of predictions in the target domain by duplicating the pre-trained model's prediction head multiple times with perturbations. The different predictions in these duplicated heads are used to obtain pseudo labels for unlabeled target-domain images and their uncertainty to identify reliable pseudo labels. We also propose a Twice Forward pass Supervision (TFS) strategy that uses reliable pseudo labels obtained in one forward pass to supervise predictions in the next forward pass. The adaptation is further regularized by a mean prediction-based entropy minimization term that encourages confident and consistent results in different prediction heads. UPL-SFDA was validated with a multi-site heart MRI segmentation dataset, a cross-modality fetal brain segmentation dataset, and a 3D fetal tissue segmentation dataset. It improved the average Dice by 5.54, 5.01 and 6.89 percentage points for the three tasks compared with the baseline, respectively, and outperformed several state-of-the-art SFDA methods.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

We propose a novel method to estimate a driver's points-of-gaze using a pair of ordinary cameras mounted on the windshield and dashboard of a car. This is a challenging problem due to the dynamics of traffic environments with 3D scenes of unknown depths. This problem is further complicated by the volatile distance between the driver and the camera system. To tackle these challenges, we develop a novel convolutional network that simultaneously analyzes the image of the scene and the image of the driver's face. This network has a camera calibration module that can compute an embedding vector that represents the spatial configuration between the driver and the camera system. This calibration module improves the overall network's performance, which can be jointly trained end to end. We also address the lack of annotated data for training and evaluation by introducing a large-scale driving dataset with point-of-gaze annotations. This is an in situ dataset of real driving sessions in an urban city, containing synchronized images of the driving scene as well as the face and gaze of the driver. Experiments on this dataset show that the proposed method outperforms various baseline methods, having the mean prediction error of 29.69 pixels, which is relatively small compared to the 1280{times}720 resolution of the scene camera.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

Due to depth ambiguities and occlusions, lifting 2D poses to 3D is a highly ill-posed problem. Well-calibrated distributions of possible poses can make these ambiguities explicit and preserve the resulting uncertainty for downstream tasks. This study shows that previous attempts, which account for these ambiguities via multiple hypotheses generation, produce miscalibrated distributions. We identify that miscalibration can be attributed to the use of sample-based metrics such as minMPJPE. In a series of simulations, we show that minimizing minMPJPE, as commonly done, should converge to the correct mean prediction. However, it fails to correctly capture the uncertainty, thus resulting in a miscalibrated distribution. To mitigate this problem, we propose an accurate and well-calibrated model called Conditional Graph Normalizing Flow (cGNFs). Our model is structured such that a single cGNF can estimate both conditional and marginal densities within the same model - effectively solving a zero-shot density estimation problem. We evaluate cGNF on the Human~3.6M dataset and show that cGNF provides a well-calibrated distribution estimate while being close to state-of-the-art in terms of overall minMPJPE. Furthermore, cGNF outperforms previous methods on occluded joints while it remains well-calibrated.

The escalating reliance on revolutionary online web services has introduced heightened security risks, with persistent challenges posed by phishing despite extensive security measures. Traditional phishing systems, reliant on machine learning and manual features, struggle with evolving tactics. Recent advances in deep learning offer promising avenues for tackling novel phishing challenges and malicious URLs. This paper introduces a two-phase stack generalized model named AntiPhishStack, designed to detect phishing sites. The model leverages the learning of URLs and character-level TF-IDF features symmetrically, enhancing its ability to combat emerging phishing threats. In Phase I, features are trained on a base machine learning classifier, employing K-fold cross-validation for robust mean prediction. Phase II employs a two-layered stacked-based LSTM network with five adaptive optimizers for dynamic compilation, ensuring premier prediction on these features. Additionally, the symmetrical predictions from both phases are optimized and integrated to train a meta-XGBoost classifier, contributing to a final robust prediction. The significance of this work lies in advancing phishing detection with AntiPhishStack, operating without prior phishing-specific feature knowledge. Experimental validation on two benchmark datasets, comprising benign and phishing or malicious URLs, demonstrates the model's exceptional performance, achieving a notable 96.04% accuracy compared to existing studies. This research adds value to the ongoing discourse on symmetry and asymmetry in information security and provides a forward-thinking solution for enhancing network security in the face of evolving cyber threats.

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous epsilon-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate's mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

Current approaches to chemical map generation from hyperspectral images are based on models such as partial least squares (PLS) regression, generating pixel-wise predictions that do not consider spatial context and suffer from a high degree of noise. This study proposes an end-to-end deep learning approach using a modified version of U-Net and a custom loss function to directly obtain chemical maps from hyperspectral images, skipping all intermediate steps required for traditional pixel-wise analysis. We compare the U-Net with the traditional PLS regression on a real dataset of pork belly samples with associated mean fat reference values. The U-Net obtains a test set root mean squared error of between 9% and 13% lower than that of PLS regression on the task of mean fat prediction. At the same time, U-Net generates fine detail chemical maps where 99.91% of the variance is spatially correlated. Conversely, only 2.53% of the variance in the PLS-generated chemical maps is spatially correlated, indicating that each pixel-wise prediction is largely independent of neighboring pixels. Additionally, while the PLS-generated chemical maps contain predictions far beyond the physically possible range of 0-100%, U-Net learns to stay inside this range. Thus, the findings of this study indicate that U-Net is superior to PLS for chemical map generation.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.